基于逆模糊数的模糊时间序列模型的农机总动力预测方法

The Approach Based on the Fuzzy Time Sequence Model of the Inverse Fuzzy Number Predicting the Gross Agricultural Machine Power

提出一种改进的基于逆模糊数的新模糊时间序列预测模型.应用模型研究辽宁省农机总动力预测问题,比一元线性回归模型,二次移动平均模型,指数曲线模型,灰色理论GM(1,1)模型等4种模型和它们的组合模型的平均预测误差率AFER都有较大改善,是值得推荐的一种时间序列预测方法.

The article presents an improved new fuzzy time sequence prediction model based on the inverse fuzzy number The AFER of using this model to study the prediction problem over the gross agricultural machine power in Liaoning Province has greatly improved in the average prediction error rate than those of using other four sorts of models,i.e.the unitary linear regression model,the binary moving average model,the exponential curve model and the gray theory GM（1,1） model and their combination model.This time sequence prediction approach is worthy to be recommended.