武汉市城市化进程与大气污染关系探究

Study of the Relationship between Urbanization Process and Air Pollution in Wuhan City

通过借鉴国内外城市化与环境污染相关性的研究成果,分别选取12个指标代表武汉市城市化进程,5个指标代表大气环境水平,以武汉市1997~2013年各级指标数据为基础数据,量化计算其综合指数,建立城市化进程和大气污染两者的相关模型,以此来分析武汉市城市化进程与大气污染的相互关系。研究表明：武汉市1997~2013年城市化进程平稳快速发展,大致呈现直线增长趋势;武汉市大气污染综合指数波动明显,大致呈倒＂N＂型曲线方式,说明其污染出现反复,其中可吸入颗粒物PM_（10）和PM_（2.5）严重超标,超标率为100%,成为主要污染物;通过计算城市化综合指数和大气污染综合指数构建两者关系模型,分析发现,武汉市城市化进程与大气污染关系的拟合不符合环境库兹涅茨倒＂U＂型曲线,而呈现出环境库兹涅茨倒＂U＂型曲线的特殊格式—倒＂N＂型曲线关系,由此揭示出武汉市城市化进程的大气污染效应。通过对武汉市近10年城市化进程与大气污染相关性的探究,最后给出降低城市可吸入颗粒物的相关对策。

With reference to the internal and external theories and research findings, in this paper, 12 indicators on behalf of the urbanization process and 5 indicators on behalf of the air environment level are selected and index data of various levels in Wuhan from 1997 to 2013 is taken as the basic data. Then, integrated index is calculated quantitatively and relevant model between urbanization process and air pollution is established for analysis of the correlation between urbanization process and air pollution in Wuhan. The results show that the urbanization process of Wuhan City has been developed in a steady and rapid manner from 1997 to 2013, roughly presenting a linear growth trend. The integrated index of air pollution shows an inverted N-shaped curved form, indicating that pollution occurs repeatedly. The concentrations of PM_（10） and PM_（2.5） exceed the limits seriously with over standard rate of 100% and consequently they are the main air pollutants. By calculation of urbanization index and air pollution index and establishment of the relationship model, it is found out after analysis that the imitation curve of urbanization and air pollution in Wuhan is not shown in accordance with the inverted U-shaped curve of Environmental Kuznets but accords with the inverted N-shaped curve which is a special form of the inverted U-shaped curve of Environmental Kuznets. Therefore, the air pollution effects of urbanization process in Wuhan are revealed. By study of the correlation between urbanization process and air pollution in Wuhan in the past ten years, corresponding countermeasures are proposed for urban PM reduction.