基于增加值视角的海峡两岸贸易收益核算

On the Cross-Strait Trade Income Accounting under the Global Value Chain

通过构建双边贸易收益核算模型,从总体规模、行业结构、实现方式等层面对海峡两岸贸易收益进行核算。研究发现传统统计口径下大陆的贸易逆差出现明显高估。在海峡两岸贸易中,大陆对台出口包含的境内增加值比重超过六成,而台湾对大陆出口的贸易收益率不足四成。电子及光学设备是海峡两岸贸易的最主要领域,其更多的表现为中间品贸易形式。在两岸垂直专业化分工程度较低的部门,两岸双边出口大部分表现为最终产品并且被对方当地消费。而在两岸垂直专业化分工程度较高的部门,两岸双边出口大部分表现为中间品,并且通过对第三地出口及增值折返的形式实现,两岸贸易收益的实现很大程度上依赖着对方相应的制成品再出口,而台湾对大陆出口的依赖度更为明显。

By constructing a bilateral trade income accounting model, we check in detail the trade income accounts be- tween the two sides from the overall scale, industry structure and the way of implementation. The study shows that the mainland＇s trade deficit of the traditional statistics is obviously overestimated. In the two sides＇ trade, the mainland＇s export of the domestic value-added proportion to Taiwan is more than sixty percent while the Taiwan＇s export to mainland is less than forty percent. On the other hand, the most important areas in the cross-Strait trade are found in electronic and optical equipment which are mostly traded in the form of intermediate goods trade. In the sector with lower vertical specialization level, most of export products are final product and consumed locally by the other side, while in the sector with higher vertical specialization level, most of export products are intermediate goods and implemented in the form of exporting to third countries and value-add- ed return. The realization of the cross-Strait trade income depends, to a large extent, on the export of manufactured goods by the other side, and in this sense, it seems obvious that Taiwan relies more on its exports to the mainland.