税收负担如何影响产业结构调整?——基于税负层次和规模的讨论

How do Tax Burden Affect the Adjustment of Industrial Structure?——Based on the Level and Scale of Tax Burden

税收负担如何影响产业结构的调整？构建了基于税负层次和规模视角的产业结构调整模型，理论和实证上分析了宏观税负、产业税负和生产要素税负对产业结构高级化和合理化的影响路径及其区域化差异，并探讨了宏观税负的最优区间。研究发现：在税收的收入效应和支出调节效应的作用下，合理规模的宏观税负有利于产业结构的高级化和合理化，且宏观税负的最优区间为8．74％～11．44％：就产业结构高级化而言，第二产业税负和政府支出调节效应对其的影响是正向的，而第三产业税负和劳动力税负对其的影响是负向的；就产业结构合理化而言，产业税负对其的影响是负向的，而资本税负和人口城镇化对其的影响是正向的；在不同经济区域，上述影响路径还存在一定的差异。

How do tax burden affect the adjustment of industrial structure？ This article first constructed the model of industrial structure adjustment based on the level and scale of tax burden, made theoretical and empirical analysis of the influ- ence path of macro tax burden, industrial tax burden and factor tax burden on fundamentals and rationalization of industrial structure and its regional differences, and discussed the optimum range of macro tax burden. The study found that： under the action of the tax revenue expenditure effect and tax adjusting effect, rational scale of macro tax burden is beneficial to the fun- damentals and rationalization of industrial structure, and its optimal range is from 8.74% to 11.44% ; In terms of the funda- mentals of industrial structure, the second industry tax burden and regulating effect of government spending have a positive impact on it, and the third industry tax burden and Labor tax burden have a negative impact on it; In terms of rationalization of industrial structure, industry tax burden have a negative impact on it, and capital tax burden and population urbanization have a positive impact on it; In different economic regions, the influence path make certain differences.