中国的产业结构调整:基于企业兴衰演变的考察

Industrial Structure Change in China: A Study on the Rise and Fall of Enterprises' Evolution

采用工业企业数据库,以微观企业在市场中的兴衰演变来考察中国的产业结构调整。首先,通过分解产业结构调整中生产率提高与结构变动的影响效应来阐述兴衰演变的结果:相比于生产率提高效应,结构变动效应更为突出,行业间的结构变动更为剧烈;附加值较高的资本与技术密集型行业日益在生产率与结构两方面引领产业结构调整。其次,沿着企业生命周期路线,探讨企业兴衰演变的动态变迁过程,研究发现:企业进入率大于退出率,市场规模在扩大,壁垒在消除;市场竞争机制作用显著,经过近十年的洗礼,1999年在位的企业中超过65%被淘汰出市场。"中国制造"在全球价值链中的位置正不断攀升,形成二元结构,部分劳动密集型行业的比较优势得以维持与加强,部分行业则消退,而部分高附加值的资本与技术密集型行业表现活跃,该二元结构在东部地区尤为明显。

From the perspective of the role micro enterprises play during the rise and fall of evolution in market, this paper uses data of industrial enterprises to analyze the industrial structure change in China. First of all, the paper decomposes influential effect of technical improvement and structure change of the industrial change to elaborate on the outcomes of the rise and fall of enterprises＇ evolution： compared to the productivity improvement effect, the structural change effect is more prominent, and the structural change between industries is more intense. Capital-intensive and technological-intensive industries with higher added value dominate the industrial structure change in both productivity and structure. Furthermore, the paper explores the dynamic changing process of the rise and fall of enterprises＇ evolution： Entry rate of an enterprise is higher than exit rate, market in China is expanding and barriers are being removed. Competition mechanism plays a great part in market. After a decade of struggling, over 65% of enterprises that existed in 1999 are driven out of market. The study of this paper demonstrates that, made in China is becoming more important in global value chain and a dualistic structure is being formed. At the same time, some traditional labor-intensive industries are retaining and strengthening their comparative advantage, while some are fading away, meantime some capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries with high added value perform actively, the dualistic structure of which is extremely obvious in the eastern part of China.