预期到的货币政策具有实际效应吗?——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的数值模拟分析

Does Anticipated Monetary Policy have Real Effect?——Based on Numerical Simulation Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

根据中国宏观季度数据,在动态随机一般均衡分析框架下考察了预期到的货币政策的宏观经济效应。研究发现,预期到的货币政策对产出和就业具有短期的正向影响,但在中远期则会转化为反面抑制作用。价格刚性与工资刚性是预期到的货币政策具有实际效应的原因所在,而二者对预期到的货币政策实施效果的影响力取决于其对价格与工资加成的影响。另外,即便货币政策调整的消息提前为公众获悉,其仍可以解释31.36%的产出波动和11.08%的就业波动,但其政策效力远不及未预期到的货币政策。鉴于中国市场化程度和货币政策透明度不断提高,货币政策的有效性将会大打折扣的现实,合理引导公众预期,促使宏观经济政策从需求管理向供给侧管理是未来政策调整的方向。

Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and China＇s macro quarterly data, this paper study the macroeconomic effect of the anticipated monetary policy. The study found that, in the short run the expected monetary policy expansion has a positive influence on output and employment, but it may converted to negative influence in the long run. The reason why expected monetary policy has the actual effect is price rigidity and wage rigidity, and how price rigidity and wage rigidity influence the expected monetary policy macroeconomic effect based on how they influence price makeup and wage pickup. In addition, even the monetary policy adjustment message can be anticipated by the public in advance, it still can explain 31.36% of the output volatility and 11.08% of the employment volatility. As china＇s marketization and monetary policy transparent continuing to improve, the effectiveness of monetary policy will discount. Considering the public＇s anticipation, and prompting demand management turn to supply side management is future policy adjusting direction.