摘要
2015年以来国际小麦、玉米、大米等谷物价格均呈现不同程度的持续下跌,10月略有回升,全球谷物价格指数下跌30点。贸易萎缩是国际粮价下跌的主要原因,供求基本面是价格下跌的直接原因,出口竞争激烈和美元强势加剧了价格下行压力。预计2015/16年度全球谷物产量略有降低,消费量稳中略升,贸易量继续缩减,库存继续降低,2016年国际市场谷物价格将出现回升。国际粮价的下跌为国内粮价的稳定政策的实施提供了相对宽松的外部环境,但仍要密切关注国际谷物市场的走势。
The international wheat, rice and maize price decreased separately since 2015 with a spike in October, while the Global Cereal Price Index fell for 30 points. Shrink trade volumes contributed most to the declining price, better than expected harvest results, large stocks and strong export competition together with strengthening US dollar continued to put downward pressure to the international price. The estimated cereal production for 2015/16 will be slightly lower and the demand will show a fractional gain, trade situation is still not optimistic and the stock will keep falling which may lead to the price upward in 2016. The decrease of the international price provides more flexible external environment for China＇s new stable domestic price but close focus on the fluctuation of international cereal price is highly needed for a sustainable policy.
出处
《农业展望》
2015年第12期4-7,共4页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
自然基金青年项目(71303239)
自然基金面上项目(71173222)
关键词
谷物价格
下跌
贸易萎缩
出口竞争
稳定价格政策
cereal price
decline
shrink trade volumes
export competition
stable price policy
