农产品供应链金融风险评价体系研究

Risk Assessment System of Agricultural Supply-chain Finance

农产品供应链金融是一项现代农业金融创新业务,科学的风险评价体系对其发展具有重要意义。从行业风险、中小企业信用风险、农户信用风险和供应链运作风险4个角度出发,构建农产品供应链金融风险评价指标体系,利用不确定层次分析法确定指标权重,给出5个风险等级相对应的标准模糊状态向量,应用模糊数学构建风险等级的模糊模式识别模型,为农产品供应链金融的风险评价提供一套科学可行的方法。

Agricultural supply-chain finance is an innovative business of modern agricultural finance, and scientific risk assessment system has important significance to its development. This paper built evaluation index system of agricultural supply-chain finance from four angles of the industry risk, credit risk of small and medium sized enterprises, credit risk of farmer and supply chain financial operation risk. And considering the different importance of different index, index weight was decided by using uncertain type analysis of hierarchy process （UTAHP）, giving five normal fuzzy state vectors corresponding with risk level. It also used fuzzy pattern recognition（FPR） model of risk level based on fuzzy mathematics, which offered a set of feasible methods for evaluating the risk of agricultural products supply-chain finance.