货币政策、再融资管制与现金股利分配

Monetary Policy, SEOs Regulation and Cash Dividend Distribution

宏观经济政策制定与实施的微观基础和实施效果，是当前我国学术界和实务界关心的热点问题，本文在此政策环境下研究了宏观货币政策对我国上市公司股利行为的影响。研究发现：货币供应宽松只提高了上市公司的再融资资格获取倾向，而未能提高其现金股利发放倾向；并且，货币供应越宽松，上市公司的现金股利支付水平越低，非国有上市公司尤其明显；再者，货币政策也未能减弱上市公司对再融资管制的“迎合效应”，表现为货币供应越宽松，未满足和已满足了再融资资格的上市公司的现金股利支付水平都越低。紧缩货币政策导致上市公司提高现金股利支付水平意味着再融资管制政策发挥了积极作用；宽松货币政策未能减弱上市公司的融资约束则意味着其囤积现金以保持财务柔性具有合理性。这些发现为我国货币政策的制定、股利分配与再融资挂钩的政策法规的完善提供了借鉴。

This paper studies the evolution of regulatory rules of seasoned equity offer- ings （SEOs） in China and analyzes the impact of macro monetary policy on firms＇ cash divi- dend policies. The empirical results show that, monetary policy has positive effect on the tendency of obtaining SEOs option but no effect on the tendency of paying cash dividend. Firms reduce cash dividend payout when the monetary policy is loose and to deal with deterio- ration of earnings and future uncertainty. It shows that the loosing of monetary policies can- not mitigate firms＇ financing constraints, so firms keep low level of cash dividend payout for financial flexibility. Therefore, increasing monetary allocation efficiency and guiding the cur- rency inflow to the economic entities, especially to the non-state-owned firms is of great sig- nificance. The results provide some useful policy suggestions to decision-making depart- ments.