低油价下全球油气上游投资变化趋势

Global oil & gas upstream capital investment under low oil price

国际油价下跌对全球油气上游投资产生了重大影响。2014年,全球油气上游总投资为6639亿美元,比上年下降8%。五大国际石油公司占据了全球六成的上游投资;独立勘探开发公司具有灵活多变的投资理念,在低油价时期仍保持增长的投资趋势;国际石油公司采取稳健的投资策略,投资处于稳步上升态势。2014年,全球绝大多数地区的上游投资有不同程度的下降。2015年,全球121家石油公司的上游总投资预计为1290亿美元,比上年减少25%。未来中国石油公司应加强全球油气经营环境分析,密切跟踪油气价格的走势变化,制定多套投资方案;利用投资组合理论和优化技术,严控投资,有保有压;重新调整油田开发方案,同时加强与资源国、作业者和服务商等的谈判,尽可能降低项目成本;密切关注海外油气资产并购信息,谨慎选择并购目标和出售目标,不断优化资产结构。

The international oil price collapse has had a significant impact on global upstream investment. Total global upstream capital investment fell 8% in 2014 to $664 billion. Five major international oil companies accounted for 60% of the world＇s upstream investment; the independent exploration and development companies remained investment growth at low oil price with flexible investment philosophy; international oil companies adopt sound investment strategy with expenditure growing steadily. The upstream investment in most regions around the world suffered from different degrees of decline in 2014. A total of $129 billion has been cut from the 2015 upstream budgets of 121 companies, which was 25% lower than the previous year. China＇s oil companies should strengthen the analysis of global oil and gas business environment, pay more attention to the trend of oil and gas price fluctuation, and prepare multiple capital spending budget plans; improve technology under the portfolio theory, control investment, and take protective or suppressive measures according to different conditions; readjust the oilfield development plan, strengthen negotiation with host countries, operators and service providers to reduce the cost; and also pay close attention to overseas oil and gas assets merger and acquisition, carefully choose acquisition and sales targets, and constantly optimize the assets structure.