金融经济周期下的中央银行资产负债表策略

A Study of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy Based on the Financial Business Cycle

我国处于金融经济周期的下行阶段,经济增速放缓与金融资产膨胀、结构性高杠杆、资产价格下降等问题相互交织。公众的资产选择偏好发生变化,通缩预期和流动性风险上升,货币政策传导机制受到阻碍。中央银行通过降低基准利率等方式,刺激经济的边际效应下降,金融风险的边际成本上升,传统的货币政策框架捉襟见肘、顾此失彼。在金融经济周期的大背景下,货币政策需构建涵盖资产价格、金融稳定、汇率的多目标函数,将经济增长、货币稳定、金融稳定纳入统一框架,引导金融机构的逆周期发展模式,加强货币政策与监管政策沟通协调;构建完善的"利率走廊"系统,丰富、创新货币政策操作工具,向更加灵活和多样化的资产负债表策略转变。

China is in the downward stage of financial business cycle in a complex situation in which is the mixture of slackening economic growth rate, inflation of financial asset, structural high leverage and decline of assets price, the preference of public assets changing, inflation expectation and liquidity risk increase. Based on the financial business cycle, the monetary policy should be built to reflect multiple objective functions including assert price, financial stability and exchange rate in order to promote economic growth, currency stabilization and financial stability into a unified framework.