日本经济增长对中国需求依赖的估算

Estimation of the Reliance of Japanese Economic Growth on China's Demand

随着中国对外进出口快速扩张和国民收入水平大幅提高，日本经济对中国的依赖程度越来越大。进出口数据虽然能反映两国的贸易依赖关系，但是由于国际分工越来越多地以产品内分工的方式融合在全球价值链之中，必须借助全球间的投入产出表才能准确掌握日本生产对中国需求的依赖。根据1995～2011年世界投入产出表（WIOT）对日本出口流向进行分解、以及对两国国内增加值按照最终吸收地进行分解的结果表明，日本对中国的出口主要满足中国的内需，以中国为中心的三极贸易结构明显存在，但并不是日本对中国贸易的主体；日本经济增长对中国内需的依赖程度越来越大，中国超过美国成为日本外需最为依赖的国家；而中国经济对日本的依赖程度要低于日本对中国的依赖程度。因此不难判断，未来中国经济增长走势对日本经济的影响要大于日本经济对中国的影响。

Due to the rapid expansion of China's exports and the growing national income,the Japanese economy depends more and more on China.It is easier to understand Japan's dependence on China's domestic demand by using the world input-output table instead of international trade data. Based on the WIOT database,breaking up Japanese export according to where it is flow and breaking up Japanese and Chinese domestic value-added according to where it is ultimately absorbed,we find that most of Japan's exports to China are used to meet China's domestic demand;'tri-polar trade through China'are not important;Japanese economic growth depends more and more on China's domestic demand;China has replaced the United States as the most important country for Japan's output;On the contrary,China's economy depends lower on Japan than Japan's dependence on China. It is obvious that the impact of China's economic growth on the Japanese economy is greater than the influence of the Japanese economy on China in the future.