中国进口增长的三元边际及其影响因素研究

The Ternary Margins of China's Import Growth and Influencing Factors

本文利用2000-2013年期间HS6位码5000多种产品数据,实证分析了中国进口增长的三元边际及其影响因素。研究结果表明:无论在多边层次上,还是在双边层次上,中国进口产品数量一直呈现稳定快速增长的趋势,是中国进口快速增长的源泉;在多边层次上,中国进口产品种类一直处于高位,变化不大,在双边层次上,对不同的贸易伙伴呈现不同的特征,但总体上中国进口各主要贸易伙伴的产品种类呈上升趋势;在多边层次上,中国进口产品价格一直高于世界平均水平,从大多数主要贸易伙伴的进口产品价格也一直高于世界平均水平,近年来中国进口产品价格没有下降的趋势;从影响因素来看,在华外商直接投资、中国对外直接投资、固定贸易成本等因素是影响中国进口贸易的重要因素。

The growth of imports is one of China＇s new long-term trade policies. This paper uses HS 6- digit, multi- product data（containing more than 5000products） from 2000 to 2013 to empirically analyze the ternary margins of China＇s import growth and their influencing factors. The results are as follows. First,the quantity of China＇s import products grew steadily and rapidly at both multilateral and bilateral levels. Second, at the multilateral level, the products imported by China were extremely varied throughout the period studied. At the bilateral level, the products＇ degree of variety differed with the particular type of trading partners, though variety generally increased. Third, at the multilateral level,the prices of China＇s imports were always higher than the world averages; this was true for most of China＇s trading partners. The prices of imports into China have not decreased in recent years. Finally, foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment, and fixed trade costs were important factors affecting China＇s import trade.