中国区域能源流动时空演进过程分析

Spatial-temporal process of regional energy flows in China

中国能源产消不平衡导致在空间上形成大规模的能源流动，流动格局不断发生变化，需要采用纵横向耦合视角分析区域能源流动的演进过程及特点。文章构建衡量区域能源流向和流速的指标，通过多次分层聚类将1995年-2012年30个省（市、区）在煤炭、石油和天然气供需方面的职能类型划分为7种，重点分析汇流地、输流地和中转地，各能源流动主要特点为：第一，煤炭在省与省之间调运频繁而中转规模适中，表现为沿海汇流、稳定输流、内陆中转；第二，石油流动大进大出，表现为分散汇流、集中输流、中转枢纽；第三，天然气以本地供应为主，表现为经济圈汇流、多源供应、小进小出。总体来看，中国能源消费的分布轴线逐渐靠近胡焕庸线，与人口分布的趋势基本一致。

Imbalance of energy＇s production and consumption leads to energy＇s large-scale flows in the space with the constantly changing flow patterns, which needs vertical and horizontal perspectives to analyze. This article con- structed indicators to measure the direction and velocity of regional energy flows. Through multiple hierarchical clustering, 30 provinces （cities, dis- tricts） in the coal, crude oil and natural gas during 1995-2012 were divided into 7 flow function types, and input place, transit place and output place were mainly analyzed. Conclusions are as follows： Firstly, coal transport frequently between provinces in moderate size, which represents coastal input, steady output, and inland transit. Secondly, crude oil flow in large scale, which represents dispersed input, centralized output, and transit hub. Thirdly, natural gas is mainly self-sufficiency, which represents economic-circle, input multi-source supply, and small-scale transit. Overall, distribution axis of energy consumption in China gradually closes to the Hu＇s line, consistent with the trend of population.