中间品进口结构对最终品出口结构的影响分析——基于中国数据的实证检验

How the Makeup of Imports of Intermediate Goods Affects the Makeup of Exports of Final Goods in the Manufacturing Sector: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

在全球价值链背景下,中间品贸易已经成为进出口贸易的重要组成部分。因此,研究中间品进口结构如何影响最终品出口结构就显得十分必要。本文通过分解中国中间品和最终品进出口数据,对中间品贸易、最终品贸易两者间关系进行了经验分析。在引力方程基础上,运用最小二乘法和固定效应面板模型,对中间品进口、最终品出口之间的关系做了实证分析并得出结论:在中国中间品贸易模式中,中间品中半成品进口和零配件进口主要拉动最终资本品出口,中间品中初级产品进口主要带动最终消费品出口,中国从出口劳动密集型最终消费品向出口高技术含量最终资本品转移。这说明中国正逐步以高附加值产品融入全球生产网络,以实现贸易结构和产业结构的转型升级。

With the formation of global value chains, trade in intermediate goods has become an important part of international trade. Therefore, a study of how the composition of the intermediate goods imports affects the composition of final goods exports is crucial. In this paper, the authors perform an empirical analysis of the import and export data on the trade in intermediate and final goods in China. The results show that the import of semi- finished products and spare parts are the main drivers of exports of capital goods and that imports of primary products are the main drivers of exports of final consumer goods. The weight of exports of final goods from China is shifting from labor- intensive goods to technology- intensive goods. Finally, the results show that China＇s position in international production networks has improved.