中国与中亚五国农产品产业内贸易及影响因素——基于2004～2013年面板数据分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Intra-industry Trade of Agricultural Products Between China and Five Central Asian Countries and Its Influencing Factors

本文从贸易发展状况、贸易结构两个方面分析中国与中亚五国农产品贸易现状,运用Grubel-Lloyd指数和GHM指数,对2004~2013年中国与中亚五国农产品产业内贸易水平与结构进行测算,并对影响产业内贸易的因素进行实证研究,结果表明：中国与中亚五国农产品进出口贸易规模不断扩大,但双边农产品贸易存在严重的贸易不平衡;中国与乌兹别克斯坦农产品贸易以产业内贸易为主,与其它四个国家以产业间贸易为主;四类农产品中第二类农产品（植物产品）贸易以产业内贸易为主,且表现为垂直型产业内贸易;此外,平均市场规模与农产品产业内贸易水平呈显著正相关;贸易不平衡程度、人均收入水平差异和对外直接投资与农产品产业内贸易水平呈显著负相关。

This paper analyzes the trade in agricultural products between China and five Central Asian countries from the perspectives of trade development and structure. We use the Grubel-Lloyd index and the GHM method to calculate the intra- industry trade index for these products and analyze its influencing factors for 2004–2013 between China and five countries in Central Asia. We conclude that imports and exports between China and these countries are growing continually, but there is a serious trade imbalance in agricultural products. The bulk of the trade in agricultural products between China and Uzbekistan is intraindustry trade, while traditional inter- industry trade dominates in China＇ s trade in agricultural products with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. Vertical Intra- industry trade plays a leading role in the second category of agricultural products, i.e., plant products. In addition, the average market size is positively correlated with intra- industry trade in agricultural products, while the level of trade imbalance, gap in per-capita income, and foreign direct investment are negatively correlated with intra-industry trade in agricultural products.