宏观经济不确定性与商业银行负债结构——基于2002～2013年数据的实证分析

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Commercial Bank Debt Structure:An Empirical Study

本文使用2002年至2013年我国的150家银行类金融机构,实证分析了宏观经济不确定性对商业银行负债结构的影响。实证分析发现:宏观经济不确定性是银行负债结构的重要决定因素;在统计意义和经济意义上,宏观经济不确定性对商业银行零售负债占比增长率均具有显著负向影响;相对于中资银行而言,在华外资银行的负债结构对宏观经济不确定性的敏感性更强。本文结论对于完善金融监管机制及货币政策的制定,具有重要的启示意义。

Based on the panel data of financial institutions for 2000 through2013, this paper performs an empirical analysis of the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the debt structures of commercial banks. The results show that macroeconomic uncertainty is an important determinant of a bank＇ s debt structure; both statistically and economically, macroeconomic uncertainty has a negative impact on the growth of the proportion of retail debt; and the debt structures of foreign banks are more sensitive to economic uncertainty than Chinese banks. This paper provides important insights on the improvement of financial oversight and monetary policy.