中国长期货币需求函数的实证分析

Long-term money demand function and deflation of China

在量化和加入制度性变量基尼系数RG、货币化系数RM、内源融资比例RIF建立中国长期货币需求函数的基础上 ,对函数进行了包括总量和结构问题的分析 ,并进一步应用建立的计量模型分析中国目前的经济形势。提出了当前不宜于再大幅下调利率 ;加快农村社会保障制度建设 ;货币供应必须考虑货币化进程因素 ;加大对中小企业的金融支持 ,放宽对贷款利率的限制 ;当前的货币供给应适度 ,必须考虑其滞后效应 ;

On the basis of constructing long-term money demand function of China while measuring and including systematic variables (Gini Coefficient RG,Monetization coefficient RM and Inside Finance coefficient RIF) ,the writer presents an analysis of the function on its total and structural questions and analyzes the present economic conditions using the above econometric model.Conclusions:1.Don`t drop the interest rate by a large scale at the present; 2.Quicken constructing the society insurance system in the country; 3.Take account of monetization in determining the money supply; 4.Give further help for the corporations of middle and small size in finance ; 5.Money supply should be moderate while taking account of its hysteresis effect; 6.Adopt fiscal policy to affect structural variables to alter the relation between the money supply and demand.