摘要
电力工业是关系到国民经济命脉的重要行业,对电力市场环境下电价变动的影响因素和经济效应进行分析,并对可能造成的危机进行有效预警,有助于确保国民经济的持续健康发展。通过模拟包含火电、水电、核电、风电和光伏发电等多种发电类型的电力市场交易,实现了6维度180粒度的价格效应分析。基于投入产出表研究了国内市场电价及国际市场汇率对国民经济的影响,建立宏观、微观2层次,包含43个指标的4级预警体系,实现电力市场与国民经济的多层次、多指标关联预警。使用本软件对我国西北某省的实际系统进行模拟分析,得到较为可靠的分析结果,可为新一轮电力市场改革及产业结构调整升级提供理论指导。
Power industry is essential to the national economy. It is significant to analyze the influence factors and economic effects of price change in electricity market environment and make effective warning of crisis, which can help to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy. Through the simulation of electricity market trading including thermal power, hydro power, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic power, this paper realizes the price effect analysis of size 6 dimensions 180. Based on input-output model, we study the influences of electricity price in domestic market and international exchange rate on the national economy, and establish 4-level warning system including 43 indicators in macroscopic and microcosmic, which can realize the multi-level, multi-index warning of electricity market and national economy. This software is used to~ simulate and analyze an actual system in Northwest province, and the reliable results are obtained, which can provide theoretical guidance for the new round e!ectricity market reform as well as industrial restructuring and upgrading. KEYWOIIDS： national economy; price effect analysis; early warning index system; input-output model
出处
《电力建设》
北大核心
2016年第3期2-7,共6页
Electric Power Construction
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(DZN17201500036)
关键词
国民经济
价格效应分析
预警指标体系
投入产出模型
national economy
price effect analysis
early warning index system
input-output model
