基于群组序物元可拓方法的电力经济与安全运行评价模型

Evaluation Model for Economic and Safe Operation of Electricity System Based on Matter-Element Extension Method Used Sequence Relations of Groups

电力工业经济与安全运行是地区社会经济发展的关键性基础支撑,为了能够准确评估电力在地区社会经济发展过程中提供的支撑力度及运行风险,引入了群组序物元可拓方法,对运行过程中关键指标构成的电力经济与安全运行评价模型进行综合电力评价,给出区域社会经济发展过程中电力经济与安全运行风险,并评估偏向相邻风险的程度,做到风险的提前预警或规避。首先,基于对地区电力经济与安全运行的关键指标的理解,构建了电力经济与安全运行评价模型。随后,结合实际现状,基于基础序关系法,采用群组序关系法进行各指标间权重的综合设定。此外,采用信息整合性强、兼顾主客观因素的物元可拓改进模型进行地区电力经济与安全运行风险的评估与识别。最后,通过实例分析,得出该指标体系及方法能够有效地衡量地区电网经济与安全运行的风险,将各指标实测值设为变量,对待评物元进行敏感性分析,该文结果可为地区经济发展提供基础建设方面的指导。

The economic and safe operation of power industry is a critical foundation to support socio-economic development. In order to accurately assess the support and operation risk of power in the process of socio-economic development, this paper introduces the matter-element extension method with using sequence relations of groups to carry out comprehensive power evaluation on the economic and safe operation evaluation model of power system that consists of key indicators during the operation process. Then, this paper presents the economic and safe operation risks of power system during the process of regional social-economic development, and evaluates the degree of deviation of adjacent risk for the early warning or avoidance of risks. Firstly, we propose the evaluation model for the economic and safe operation of power system based on the understanding of the key indicators of economic and safe operation of the regional power. Secondly, we comprehensively set the weights of various indexes with using the sequence relations of groups based on the single sequence relation. Thirdly, we adopt improved matter-element extension model to evaluate and identify the risks of economic and safe operation of regional power, which has the characteristics of strong information integration and considering subjective and objective factors. Finally, through example analysis, the index system and method can effectively measure the risks of economic and safe operation of regional power grid, and can use the measured value as the variable to make sensitivity analysis on the matter-element. The results of this paper can provide guidance on the infrastructure of regional economic development.