全球电力贸易网络结构分析

Structure Analysis of Global Electricity Trade Network

由于日益增多的国际电力交易将各国紧密地连接在一起,分析全球电力贸易网络的结构有助于识别各国重要性,进而为增强全球电力网络的可靠性和弹性提供决策支持。利用复杂网络理论分析了1990—2010年间国际电力贸易网络的演化结构及特征,结果表明不同于普通商品交易,国际电力交易具有地区性特征,可分为多个地区子网络。其中,欧亚子网络历史最久、规模最大。因此,着重分析了欧亚电力贸易网络的网络性质和群落结构特点。另外,分析各国发电CO_2排放因子与输入电力排放因子的差距,发现当前国际电力贸易在优化电力供需的同时尚且没有带来正面的CO_2减排效果。

Through more frequent international electricity trade, different nations are connected tightly. The analysis of the global electricity trade structure can help recognize the important role among countries, which will provide decision support for enhancing the reliability and resilience of global electricity network. This paper adopts complex network theory to analyze the evolution structure and characteristics of national electricity trade network from 1990 to 2010, whose results show that international electricity trade is different from ordinary commodity trading and has obvious geographical features. It can be divided into several sub-networks, where, Eurasian sub-network is the oldest and largest. Therefore, we mainly analyze the network characteristics and community features of Eurasian electricity trade network. Moreover, we analyze the gap between the CO2 emission factor of local electricity generation and that of import electricity in different countries. It is found that current international electricity trade optimizes the power supply and demand, but does not bring benefit on CO2 emission reduction.