江苏省昆山市2006～2013年胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势分析

The Incidence and Mortality of Pancreatic Cancer in Kunshan,Jiangsu Province,2006～2013

[目的]分析昆山市2006~2013年胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势。[方法]胰腺癌发病资料来源于昆山市恶性肿瘤登记报告系统;死亡病例资料来源于人口死亡信息登记管理系统;计算胰腺癌粗发病（死亡）率与中国人口年龄标化发病（死亡）率（中标率）;使用平均年度变化百分比（annual change percent,APC）评价胰腺癌发病率和死亡率在年份之间变化趋势。[结果]昆山市2006~2013年胰腺癌发病总例数744例,男性发病率明显高于女性。发病率历年有所波动,但未能发现有明显变化趋势,男性APC=2.9%（95%CI：-4.2%~10.6%）,女性APC=5.7%（95%CI：-1.8%~13.6%）。昆山市2006~2013年胰腺癌死亡总例数705例,胰腺癌男性死亡率明显高于女性。男性（APC=1.3%,95%CI：-3.0%~5.8%）、女性（APC=-1.2%,95%CI：-11.5%~10.4%）均未能发现胰腺癌粗死亡率呈现明显趋势变化。[结论 ]昆山市胰腺癌发病与死亡率水平较高,当前仍需加强疾病监测以探究其长期变化趋势。

[Purpose] To investigate the trend of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer from2006 to 2013 in Kunshan,Jiangsu province. [Methods] Pancreatic cancer new cases diagnosed in2006~2013 and registered in the Kunshan Cancer Registry were enrolled. Crude rates,age standardized rate（ASR） by China were analyzed. The trend of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer from 2006 to 2013 was evaluated by annual percentage changes（APC）. [Results] Among2006 ~2013,744 new cases with pancreatic cancer were registered. The incidence of pancreatic cancer was more higher in male than that in female,but the trend of incidence of pancreatic cancer was not observed significant difference in male（APC=2.9%,95%CI：-4.2% ~10.6%） and in female（APC=5.7%,95%CI：-1.8% ~13.6%）. A total of 705 pancreatic death cases were registered,and the mortality of pancreatic cancer was more higher in male than that in female. The trend of mortality of pancreatic cancer was not observed significant difference in male（APC=1.3%,95%CI：-3.0%~5.8%） and in female（APC=-1.2%,95%CI：-11.5% ~10.4%）. [Conclusion] The incidence and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer are higher in Kunshan,Jiangsu province. Surveillance should be strengthened so as to evaluate the long-term trend.