人民币汇率变动对我国农产品进出口贸易影响的研究综述

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on the Import and Export of China's Agricultural Products

农业是我国社会安全稳定的基础,也是我国经济发展的基础。研究人民币汇率变动对我国农产品进出口贸易的影响具有重要意义。在研究时间上以2005年为划分界限,2005年以后,借助于计算机技术,采用定性分析的方法对马歇尔——勒纳条件及J曲线效应等理论进行详细的总结归纳,并以最小二乘法作为定量分析法的最基本的分析方法。根据研究的需要常选用不同的人民币汇率,并从影响中国农产品出进口贸易的因素方面展开研究,得出了初步结论,此研究方法更灵活,研究内容更丰富,研究结论更科学,且形成了一系列建设性的对策。这将对我国农产品贸易的发展产生深远影响。

Agriculture is the foundation for social stability and economic development in China. It is significant to investigate on the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export trade of China＇s agricultural products. In the case of research time, 2005 is a division line. Since 2005, with the help of computer technology, qualitative analysis has been adopted to summarize the theories such as Marshall- Lerner condition and j-curve effect and the least square method is taken as the basic analytical method of quantitative analysis.According to the demand of research, different RMB exchange rate is chosen and a preliminary conclusion is reached by the study of factors influencing the import and export of China＇s agricultural products. A series of constructive solutions have been put forward with more flexible research methods, more rich research content and more scientific research conclusion has formed, which will exert a profound influence on China＇s agricultural product trade.