货币因素对我国房价影响的非对称性研究

The asymmetry study of the monetary factors impact on housing prices in China

文章选取2000-2014年房地产市场月度数据,对货币供应量进行H-P滤波以区分扩张性与紧缩性政策区间,利用VAR模型探讨货币因素对房价影响的非对称性以及宏观经济环境、土地价格、资金价格、股票市场以及原材料价格对房价的具体影响。结果显示,扩张性货币政策对房价的拉动作用远大于紧缩性货币政策对房价的抑制作用;货币供应量代表的数量型货币政策工具对房价的调控作用强于利率代表的价格型货币政策工具。宏观经济、土地价格、原材料价格以及其他投资渠道收益增加都将推动房价上涨,而增加供给将有效抑制房价。

This paper selected the monthly data of the real estate market from 2000 to 2014. The money supply was di-vided into expansive and constrictive policy range by Hodrick-Prescott filter, then VAR model was established to explorethe asymmetry influence of monetary factors on housing prices, and the specific effects of macroeconomic environment,land price,capital price,stock market and raw material prices on housing prices. The results showed that the promotingfunction of expansionary monetary policy was stronger than the inhibiting effects of constrictive monetary policy; the mon-ey supply represented the quantitative monetary policy tools was more effective than the interest rate represented the pric-ing monetary policy instruments to control housing prices. What＇s more, macroeconomic environment, land price,capitalprice, raw material prices and other investment income had upward effects on housing prices,but increasing supply wouldeffectively curb it.