城市区域性人口承载力动态综合测度

City Regional Population Carrying Capacity of the Dynamic Comprehensive Measure

对马尔萨斯人口增长模型进行研究,设计人口承载力发展路径和基于增长模型的隶属函数,从概率角度构建人口承载力动态综合测度模型,同时,以城市区域为研究对象,以经济作为人口承载力主导影响因素,辅之以自然、环境、资源与科技因素,构建人口承载力综合评价指标体系,多角度、多因素分析区域人口承载力,寻找人口承载短板,为人口承载力研究提供新的研究方法和视角.实证研究结论显示,研究区域人口承载力当前处于承载力强阶段,并开始向适度阶段过渡,其内部指标和子系统发展不平衡,人口系统自身发展稳定,经济和环境人口承载力强,资源和科技承载力较弱,随着区域经济的发展,在相当长一段时间内可进入适度人口阶段.

The paper researches the Malthus population growth model,and designs population carrying capacity development path and the membership function based on growth model,and builds up the dynamic comprehensive measure model of population carrying capacity from the angle of probability,at the same time,the paper is regarded urban areas as the research object,and regarded economy as the dominant factors of population capacity,and supplemented by natural factors,environment,resource and technology,and build the comprehensive evaluation index system of population carrying capacity,and analyzed of regional population carrying capacity from multi-angle and multi-factor,and finds out population carrying shortboard,which provide new research methods and perspectives for population carrying capacity research.Empirical study conclusion shows that the study area population carrying capacity of is in strong stage,and begins to transition to a moderate stage,its internal indicators and subsystem are unbalanced development,population system develops stably,the population carrying capacity of economic and environmental are strong,and the resources and technology are weak,with the development of regional economy,the regional will enter the stage of moderate population for a long time.