双赢目标约束下中国能源结构调整测算

Estimation of China's Energy Structure Adjustment with the Win-win Goal Constraints

中国碳排放的主要来源是能源消费,能源消费又是经济增长的重要驱动因素,因而如何进行能源结构调整成为我国能否如期实现经济增长和碳减排双赢目标的关键。考虑技术进步的动态条件,基于1991-2013年中国的数据,采用超越对数生产函数对我国GDP增长中不同能源要素的贡献率进行了分解,并在2020年实现双赢目标的约束下,对不同能源2014-2020年期间的增长率在技术进步动态条件下进行了估算,分析了实现双赢目标的路径条件。研究结果显示:1综合要素、煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源等驱动因素1991-2013年期间对GDP的年均贡献率分别为:36.38%、13.03%、16.99%、12.00%、21.60%,中国经济增长对能源投入的依赖较强;2煤炭、石油、天然气对非化石能源的替代弹性较小,可替代性较差,但非化石能源对煤炭的替代弹性从2007年开始逐步增大,同时,煤炭、石油利用的技术进步慢于非化石能源,这有利于我国双赢目标的实现;3为实现2020年的双赢目标,煤炭、石油、天然气和非化石能源2020年的投入量需要比2013年分别增长26.43%、26.92%、57.53%、64.27%,2020年的能源消费结构比例为:0.63∶0.18∶0.07∶0.12,各种能源增长幅度不同,保持平稳调整;4在双赢目标约束条件下,从非化石能源、煤炭、石油、天然气四种能源角度分析了实现该目标的路径条件。从整体上看,在技术进步推动下,到2020年中国可以实现经济年均增长7%、碳排放强度下降44%的双赢目标。

China＇ s carbon emissions mainly come from its energy consumption and energy consumption is the prime driving iactor of its economic growth. So how to adjust the energy structure is the key to realizing China＇ s win-win goal of economic growth and carbonemissions reduction. Considering the dynamic condition of technological progress, the contribution rates of different energy consmnption to economic growth in China were decomposed in this paper by the method of the translog production function using the data of China from 1991 to 2013. The growth rates of the different energy from 2014 to 2020 with the win-win goal constraints were estimated. The way to achieve the win-win goal was analyzed. The results show that：① the average contribution rates of integrated factors, coal, petroleum, natural gas, non-fossil energy to economic growth are 36.38% , 13.03% , 16.99% , 12.00% , 21.60% respectively from 1991 to 2013. China＇ s economic growth to a large extent depends on energy input; ② the substitution elasticity of coal, petroleum, natural gas to the non fossil energy is relatively small while the substitution elasticity of non-fossil energy to the coal began to increase. At the same time, the technology progress of coal, oil is slower than that of non-fossil energy, which is conducive to realize China＇ s win-win goal of economic growth and carbon-emissions reduction; ③ In order to realize the win-win goal in 2020, the inputs of coal, petroleum, natural gas, non-fossil energy are expected to increase by 26.43% , 26.92% , 57.53% , 64.27% in 2020 compared with those in 2013. The proportion of energy consumption of coal, petroleum, natural gas, non-fossil energy will be： 0.63： 0.18： 0.07：0.12 in 2020. The growth rates of different energy are different but energy structure adjustment is steady and snmoth; （~ the ways to achieve the win-win goal were analyzed from the perspective of non-fossil energy, coal, petroleum and natural gas. On the whole, China will be able to realize the win-win goal and its GDP will keep the average annual growth rate of 7% and carbon-emission intensity will drop by 44% in 2020.