集体建设用地指标市场化交易预警研究

Research on Early-Warning in the Market of the Collective Construction Land Quota Transaction

对集体建设用地指标市场化交易进行预警研究可以更好地为其入市提供科学的监督和管控。本文以集体建设用地指标市场化交易的结果征兆信息建立其警兆值的评测指标体系;运用基于主成分分析的"惩罚性"变权法确定权重,计算综合模拟指数划分警界区间、确定警度;结合GM(1,1)模型进行警度预测,并以江苏省新沂市为例进行了实证测算。研究结果表明:1采用景气信号灯来反映警度,2007-2008年新沂市的集体建设用地指标市场交易的警兆值为-0.041和0.184,处于紫色预警;2009年警兆值为0.238,处于蓝色预警;2010年警兆值上升到0.649,处于绿色预警;2011-2013年警兆值从0.876提高至0.920,处于红色预警状态。2对指标体系进行主成分分析确定基础权重,得到建设用地转耕地面积(0.08)、农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费(0.084)、地均财政收入(0.083)等的基础权重明显大于其他指标,是制约预警警度的重要因素。3通过"惩罚性"变权研究,得知农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费的变权权重值有波动下降趋势,说明该指标的重要性递减;第一产业单位面积产值、新型农村合作医疗覆盖率、农村居民基本养老保险参保率的变权权重值有波动上升趋势,说明这些指标的重要性在不断加强。42014-2016年新沂市集体建设用地指标市场交易的预测警兆值是1.566,1.711和2.154,均是红色预警,表明集体建设用地指标交易持续高热。结论与建议:预警结果能为监测集体建设用地指标市场交易情况提供依据,对上述重要因素进行科学合理的管控将有利于降低指标市场交易的警度,以促进集体建设用地入市的持续健康发展。

Research on early-warning system of the market for the collective construction land quota transactions can provide scientific basis for monitoring and controlling its market transaction situation. In this article, the early-warning evaluation index system was set up based on the symptoms resulting from collective construction land market transactions. The weight determination on factors were based on the punitive variables method of principle components analysis. The warning intervals and degrees were determined by composite simulation index. Combining with GM （ I. 1 ） model, we determined the warning degree predictions, and finished the empirical test which taken Xinyi（a city in Jiangsu Province）as an example. The results showed that： first, using color coded light to represent the warning degree, the early-warning signs value of Xinyi＇ s collective construction land quota market transactions in 2007 - 2008 were -0. 041 and 0. 184, which was purple warning. The warning signs value of 2009 was O. 238, which was blue warning; in 2010, the warning signs value climbed to 0.649 which was green warning; between 2011 and 2013 the warning signs value climbed from 0. 876 to 0. 920 which were red warning. Second, The basic weight determination calculated by principle components analysis for the factors were ： O. 08 for construction land converted to cultivated land, 0. 084 for farmers＇ land resettlement compensation fee and 0. 083 for revenue per hectare. Obviously those three factors have more basic weights than other factors and were considered as significant early warning factors. Third, by using punitive variable weight method to exam the tendency of weight change over time, we found that the weight for farmer＇ s land resettlement compensation fee was decreasing, which indicated the decreasing in significance. On the other hand, weights on factors such as first industrial output value per unit area, the coverage rate of cooperative medical service in rural areas, and the participation rate of basic endowment insurance were increasing, and this phenomena indicated the increasing importance of these indexes. Fourth, the predicted values of warning signs of Xinyi＇ s collective construction land quota market transaction from 2014 to 2016 were 1. 566, 1. 711 and 2. 154 respectively. The color coded light were all red, which meant the transactions would be persistent in high heat. In conclusion, the results of early-warning can provide basis for monitoring the collective construction land quota market transactions situation. By managing and controlling the key factors identified by study, the warning degree can be effectively reduced. This will in turn promote healthy and sustainable development of the collective construction land market.