西部大开发政策效应评价

Impact Evaluation on China's Western Development Policy

经过15年的西部大开发,西部各个省份的综合发展水平怎样?西部大开发是否显著缩小西部与东部地区在综合发展水平和经济增长的差异?哪些政策起到了关键作用?是本文将要探讨的问题。研究方法主要是通过模型与数据的实证研究方法对西部大开发的政策效应进行评价。内容包括:一是通过构建包含了社会、经济、科教与文化、对外开放和资源与环境五大类25个分项指标的综合发展水平评价体系,使用从1997到2013年31个省市的指标数据,并计算出综合评价值来考察西部大开发政策对西部地区各个省份整体发展的影响。从评价值排名上来看发现只有重庆、陕西、四川和内蒙古综合发展水平排名提升明显,而新疆、宁夏和青海发展差距还在拉大,其他省份排名变化不大。从分类指标来看,西部地区整体上社会发展和资源环境与生态提升较为明显,说明中央对于公共服务的转移支付和"退耕还林还草"等保护环境与生态的政策起到了一定的成效。二是选取了交通基础设施建设、中央转移支付和税收优惠这三个主要政策作为计量模型的政策变量,分别考察西部大开发整体和分项政策对于综合发展水平和经济增长率的影响。通过系统GMM方法估计整体西部大开发整体政策效应,以2000年前后对比,政策实施对GDP增长率的提升并不显著,综合发展水平也没有收敛。而以2008年为时间节点,综合发展水平和经济增长速度都得到了显著提升。通过DID估计分项政策,结果表明基础设施投入和转移支付能够有效提升综合发展水平和经济增长速度,税收优惠提升相对较弱。本文建议:在交通基础设施投入方面继续对西部地区予以倾斜,特别是建设西部地区通往东中部地区的交通大通道;培育和完善西部地区的市场经济体系,政府较少干预企业投资决策;加强对于西部落后地区、偏远地区的公共产品投入,加强扶贫工作。

This article discussed the effects of western development strategy in China on western region in the past 15 years, whether western development significantly reduced the gap of western region and eastern region on comprehensive development level and economic growth, and which policies played significant roles on western region＇ s development. By using empirical research method based on model and data, it evaluated the policy effects of western development. First, it built a comprehensive development level evaluation index system covering 25 sub-indicators and five categories, based on data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2013, and calculated comprehensive evaluation values. The results showed that the comprehensive development levels of Chongqing, Shaanxi, Sichuan and Mongolia improved significantly, the gap between Xinjiang, Ningxia and Qinghai, and other provinces were enlarging and ranking levels in other provinces hadn＇t changed much. From sub-indicators, social development and resources and environment and ecology in the western region improved significantly, and this showed that transfer payment for public service and policies to protect environment and ecology implemented by the central government had exerted obvious effects. Second, it built econometric model to evaluate how overall policy and sub-policy of western development affect comprehensive development level and economic growth of western region, By GMM method, it estimated the effects of overall policy. Compared the data before and after the year 2000, the policy had an insignificant role on GDP growth rate and comprehensive level in western region. Compared the data before and after 2008, the policy had a significant role. The estimated results of DID method showed that infrastructure investment and transfer payment effectively improved comprehensive development level and economic growth, but roles of tax incentives were comparatively small. It suggested that more investments should be given to infrastructure and public service in China＇ s western region, governments should cultivate and develop market economic system and reduce governmental intervention on companies＇ investment decision-making, and strengthen poverty relief.