资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响——基于中国数据的实证研究

The Influence of Asset Prices Fluctuation on Financial Stability——An Empirical Research Based on China Data

资产价格波动是影响金融稳定的重要因素。金融稳定不仅仅指银行信贷或汇率波动的稳定性,而是一个多维度的、能够全面衡量银行、证券、外汇以及宏观经济状况等金融相关变量稳定性的指标体系。本文在构建金融稳定指标体系的基础上,实证研究了我国资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响,结果表明,中国房地产销售价格和股票价格等资产价格显著影响金融稳定,且房地产、股票等资产价格的剧烈波动是引发金融不稳定的重要原因。为此,政策当局要充分意识到这一点,通过加大股票市场监管力度、建立股票市场和房地产市场的预警体系等手段来观测资产价格波动情况;同时,在制定货币政策时应高度关注资产价格,从而在一定程度上降低由资产价格剧烈波动引发金融危机的可能性。

Asset prices fluctuation is an important factor affecting financial stability. Financial stability does not only mean the stability of bank credit and exchange rate fluctuation;it is also a multi-dimensional indicator system that can be used to comprehensively measure the stability of such finance related variables as banks,securities,foreign exchanges,and other macro economic situations. The influence of asset prices fluctuation on financial stability is studied via empirical evidence based on the establishment of financial stability target systems. The research indicates that sale prices and stock prices of China＇s real estate have a significant effect on financial stability. The drastic fluctuations in asset prices of real estate,stock and so on are the important reasons triggering financial instability. Therefore,policy authority should be well aware of the influence of fluctuations in asset prices on financial stability and strengthen the supervision on asset markets of real estate and stock,thereby reducing the possibility of causing financial crisis by fluctuations in asset prices.