杨树叶纹斑病与气象因子的关系

Relationship Between Poplar Leaf Veins Spot and Meteorological Factors

为明确新疆地区气象因素与杨树叶纹斑病发病率的关系,提高病害发生预测能力,减少经济损失,2014年5月至10月份对新疆乌鲁木齐市杨树叶纹斑病的周年消长规律进行了观测,并利用观测资料将主要气象因子对杨树叶纹斑病发生的影响进行了系统分析。结果显示,关键因子分别为平均风速、平均水汽压、累计降雨天数。其中平均风速与杨树叶纹斑病的病叶率呈极显著负相关。平均水汽压及累计降雨天数与杨树叶纹斑病的病叶率呈显著正相关。利用这3个关键气象因子与杨树叶纹斑病发病率(Y1)建立多元线性回归方程式,得到Y=103.180-38.788X1+39.637X4+7.746X6,复相关系数R=0.716 4,复相关关系极显著。

Studied the relationship between meteorological factors and incidence of Poplar leaf veins spot, to improve the ability to predict, and avoid severe losses. From May to October of 2014 an observation on the growth and decline of the year-round variation of Poplar leaf veins spot in Urumqi Xinjiang was conducted, and a system analysis on the development of Poplar leaf veins spot influ- enced by the main meteorological factors was made. The result showed that there were three key factors, the average wind speed, av- erage vapor pressure and the accumulative rainfall days. The average wind speed showed significantly negative correlation with the leaf incidence of Poplar leaf veins spot. The average vapor pressure and the accumulative rainfall days had a significantly positive re- lationship with the leaf incidence of Poplar leaf veins spot. Using the three key meteorological factors and incidence of Poplar leaf veins spot disease （Y1） to establish multiple linear regression equation, and get Y=103.180-38.788X1 ＋39.637X4 ＋7.746X6, multiple correlation coefficient R = 0.716 4, multiple correlation relationship is significantly.