技术创新成功与失败的纯理论思考

Theoretical Thinking about the Success and Failure in Technological Innovation

文章基于对技术创新理论的梳理和理性批判,结合对典型技术创新案例的观察,采用理论演绎的方法对技术创新的成功和失败提出三点反思,包括界定技术创新预期主体、重新审视判别标准和关注技术创新的时代特征。在此基础上归纳了技术创新过程中五类重要的反常现象,进而划定技术创新的"模糊区间"。技术创新的模糊区间主要包括:技术商业化失败,不代表创新失败;技术创新在A企业失败,不代表在B企业失败;新技术未进入商品化,不代表达不到技术创新的预期;技术创新的商业价值失败,不代表企业战略失败;技术创新在企业层面失败,不代表其他层面失败。最后,以技术创新的投资决策分析和技术创新失败项目的挽救为例,分析了相关理论思考的实践应用价值和应用思路。

This study traces back the evolution path of technological innovation theory with a rational critical thinking. Combining typical case study of technological innovation with the theoretical deduction as the methodology, three reconsiderations about the success and failure in technological innovation have been made, including the definition of the expected participants in technological innova-tion, the re-judgment of the assessment criterion, and the special attention to the new era characteristics of technological innovation.From the perspective of above three reconsiderations, five significant abnormal phenomena in technological innovation have been extracted in order to profile the fuzzy regions between the success and failure in technological innovation. The fuzzy region covers the following circumstances： failure in commercialization does not mean the total failing in whole innovation; failure in enterprise A does not mean same failing in enterprise B; failure in entering in the commercialization does not mean the ones out of expectation; the failure in providing commercial value does not mean the total failure in cooperate strategy; failure in enterprise level does not mean the failure in the other levels. In the end, taking the scenarios of technological innovation investment decision analysis and innovation failure rescue project management as examples, this study brings forward the practical implications based on the theoretical thinking in this paper.