日本非常规货币政策的传导机制及效果研究——基于2007-2014年数据的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Transmission Mechanism and Effectiveness of Japanese Unconventional Monetary Policy——Based on the Analysis of Annual Data from 2007 to 2014

常规的货币政策使中央银行面临利率零下限约束,当名义利率水平接近于零时,常规货币政策工具无法发挥稳定宏观经济和刺激经济增长的作用。文章以非常规货币政策的相关理论和传导机制为基础,全面阐述全球金融危机以来日本货币政策的实施背景、政策内容与效果。实证部分基于2007年1月至2014年12月的统计数据,采用VEC模型对日本第二轮量化宽松货币政策的效果进行了检验。检验结果表明,虽然量化宽松货币政策曾对日本经济的恢复起到一定程度的促进作用,但是效果不甚明显,货币政策目标未能实现。

Conventional monetary policy of the central bank faces zero nominal interest rate floor. When interest rate is close to zero, conventional monetary policy tools cannot play a role in stabilizing economy and stimulating economic growth. This paper analyzed Japanese monetary policy after the global financial crisis based on relative theories of unconventional monetary policy. The author analyzed the background of the policy operation, the content of the policy, and the effectiveness of the policy. The empirical part examined second round of Japanese quantitative easing monetary policy based on the analysis data from January 2007 to December 2014.The result shows that the effectiveness of quantitative easing policy is relatively weak.