基于MaxEnt模型的西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆潜在分布预测研究

Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Gomphocerus sibiric in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

【目的】利用MaxEnt模型,预测西伯利亚蝗虫(Gomphocerus sibiric)在新疆的潜在分布区。【方法】基于19个环境因子和197个西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆地理分布点,结合MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS软件,预测西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆的潜在分布区,划分风险等级,采用接受者操作特征曲线(ROC)的分析方法对预测结果进行验证。【结果】训练数据集(Training data)和验证数据集(Testing data)的AUC值分别为0.992、0.990,预测结果与实际拟合度很高。西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆分布的适生区和高危区分布在塔城、阿勒泰、博州、伊犁、乌鲁木齐、昌吉。【结论】根据AUC值的评价指标,研究对西伯利亚蝗虫的预测结果是比较准确的。西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆分布的适生区和高危区主要集中于北疆及天山北坡一带,且适生区及高危区占研究区总面积的14.11%。最冷季平均温(bio11)、最冷季的平均降水量(bio19)、最干季平均温(bio9)、温度变化的方差(bio4)、年均降雨量(bio12)、最湿季平均温(bio8)和降雨量变化的方差(bio15)是影响西伯利亚蝗虫潜在分布的主要环境因子。

【Objective】Based on the MaxEnt model,this paper aims to predict the Gomphocerus sibiric of the potential distribution area in Xinjiang. 【Method】A prediction of Gomphocerus sibiric potential distribution was conducted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. In this prediction,19 environmental variables and197 occurrence data were used. When being modeled,the occurrence data and environmental variables were firstly imported into the MaxEnt,and 75% of the occurrence data to predict the risk（ training data） and the other（ testing data） to test the accuracy were used. The raster layer of Gomphocerus sibiric was gotten in the Xinjiang potential distribution in ASCII format,then was imported into ArcGIS for further analyses,and the potential suitable areas of Gomphocerus sibiric in Xinjiang was gotten. 【Result】Finally,the result was confirmed by the ROC（ receiver operating characteristics） curve analytical method,and the AUC（ area under the ROC curve） of the training data and testing data was as high as 0. 992 and 0. 990,respectively. Gomphocerus sibiric of suitable area and high- risk area in Xinjiang were in Tacheng,Altay,Bortala,Ili,Urumqi and Changji.【Conclusion】According to the AUC value evaluation index,result is more accurate for the forecast of Gomphocerus sibiric in this study. Gomphocerus sibiric is mainly distributed in the northern Xinjiang and the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain. The suitable area and high- risk area is up to14. 11%. Mean temperature and the average precipitation of the coldest quarter,mean temperature of the driest quarter,the standard deviation of temperature seasonal change,annual average precipitation,mean temperature of the wettest quarter and CV of precipitation were the main environmental variables that affected the distribution of Gomphocerus sibiric in Xinjiang.