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沈阳降水相态特征分析及预报方法 被引量:14

Analysis on Precipitation Phase Characteristics and Its Forecast Methods of Shenyang
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摘要 基于2003-2012年1-3月与11-12月沈阳市浑南站近10 a常规地面和探空观测资料,将影响沈阳地区的天气形势分为冷高前部、蒙古气旋、华北—河套气旋和倒槽—江淮气旋型,基于不同高度上的温度和气压层间的位势厚度,建立沈阳不同天气形势降水相态预报的指标。不同天气形势对应的不同降水相态的温度及位势厚度特征存在明显差异,冷高前部型对应冷空气最强,降水相态一般为雪,其温度指标较其他天气型更低,位势厚度指标也较其他天气型更小,另外3种天气形势的降水相态也能通过温度和位势厚度指标加以区分。此外,位势厚度作为预报指标较温度指标更易区分降水相态,尤其是700hPa与1000hPa之间的位势厚度(H700-1000)在不同天气分型条件下差别较大。通过与不同地区建立的降水相态预报指标对比发现,建立的预报指标与以往的研究比较接近,但基于天气分型建立的预报指标更有利于对不同降水相态的准确预报和把握。 Based on surface conventional observation data and sounding data from January to March and November to December during2003- 2012 at Hunnan station of Shenyang,the weather circulation influencing Shenyang was classified into four patterns including the front of cold high pressure,Mongolia cyclone,North China- Yellow River cyclone and the inverted trough- Changjiang- Huaihe cyclone firstly,then on the basis of that,the identification criterions of different precipitation phase in winter of Shenyang were established. By comparing the identification criterions of different precipitation phase,it was found that there were significant differences in temperature and geopotential thickness for different precipitation phase under different weather patterns. The strength of cold air was strongest under the front of cold high pressure situation,and temperature was lower and geopotential thickness was thinner than those under other weather situations. However,temperature and geopotential thickness could be used to distinguish precipitation phase of the other three weather patterns quite well. It was more likely to distinguish precipitation phase with geopotential thickness than that with temperature only,especially the geopotential thickness between 700 hPa and 1 000 hPa. Finally,by comparing the identification criterions with the past work,though the identification criterion in this work was more close to the past,it was more conductive to distinguish precipitation phase and make more accurate prediction based on weather patterns.
出处 《干旱气象》 2016年第1期51-57,74,共8页 Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金 国家自然科学基金"参数优化和数据同化用于土壤湿度估算研究"(41105064)和"辽宁省强对流专家型预报员团队"共同资助
关键词 天气分型 降水相态 指标 位势厚度 synoptic patterns precipitation phase identification criterion geopotential thickness
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