地铁项目前期社会稳定性分析方法探讨

Analatic Method of Social Stability in Earlier Stage of Subway Project

地铁项目具有投资大、施工期长、社会影响大等特点,建设地点多位于城市繁华区,建设和运营期间会对部分居民和企事业单位造成影响。项目前期需要开展社会稳定性分析工作,调查受影响对象对项目建设的诉求,掌握潜在影响社会稳定性的风险,提出预案和措施,化解工程建设和受影响对象之间的矛盾。进行影响社会稳定性的单因素发生概率和影响程度分析,确定单因素风险等级,在此基础上,参考同类项目,给出各主要风险因素的权重,定量计算拟建项目的综合风险指数。以某地铁线路社会稳定性风险分析为实例,给出了分析的方法和流程,并对社会稳定性分析中存在的问题进行了探讨。

Subway project features big investment, long construction period and significant social impact, because the construction site is usually located in downtown areas of a city, directly influencing the surrounding residents, en- terprises and institutions during construction and operation. It is necessary to analyze problems like social stability, in- vestigate the demands of the influenced residents, enterpri- ses and institutions, identifiy the potential riskes, make plans and measures to resolve the conflicts between projects and the influenced objects. The single factor that affects social stability shall be studied, risk level caused by the sin- gle factor be detected. On this basis, the weight of risk fac- tors could be obtained, the comprehensive risk rating of a project be quantitatively calculated by referring to similar projects. Taking a subway project as example, the method and analatic process are given, problems and difficulties re- lated to social stability are analyzed.