基于集对分析和马尔科夫链的航空维修安全动态评估

Dynamic evaluation of aviation maintenance safety based on set pair analysis and Markov chain

为有效解决航空维修安全评估过程中诸多不确定性问题,将集对分析(SPA)理论和马尔科夫链(MC)结合,建立航空维修安全动态评估模型。基于人-机-环系统理论,在构建评估指标体系的基础上,采用SPA理论中联系度的概念,以及同势、均势和反势的定义描述航空维修安全水平及其变化特征;运用MC模型确定的状态转移概率矩阵,预测航空维修安全动态变化趋势。以某航空兵机务大队为例,评估该单位维修安全动态变化趋势。计算结果表明,模型能有效刻画该机务大队维修安全动态变化特征,得出其安全状态等级为基本安全,总体安全水平具有减弱趋势。

In order to solve the problem of uncertainties in aviation maintenance safety evaluation,a dynamic evaluation model for aviation maintenance safety was built on the basis of SPA and MC. An evaluation index system was established by using the ＂ human-machine-environment＂ systems theory. The relationship degree of SPA was adopted to describe the aviation maintenance safety level. Change features of aviation maintenance safety were revealed according to the equal power,balance power and opposite power of relationship degree. A state transition probability matrix was determined by using MC model. The tendency in maintenance safety change was evaluated by using the matrix,a certain aviation maintenance unit was taken as an example,the dynamic tendency in maintenance safety change was evaluated for the unit.The results show that the model can portray the aviation maintenance unit safety characteristics effectively,and that the safety status of the unit is at a general safety level,also the overall safety level has a downward trend.