基于全球价值链视角的中美制造业双边贸易分解与失衡分析

Decomposition and Imbalance of Sino-U.S.Bilateral Trade of Manufacturing Industries based on Global Value Chain

利用WIOD数据库,从全球价值链视角对中美制造业双边贸易进行了分解与对比分析。研究表明:中美制造业出口中,国内增加值比例呈现不同程度下降趋势,其参与全球价值链程度在不断提升;中国制造业出口获益能力低于美国,且处于全球价值链相对下游位置;相对美国而言,中国制造业出口中隐含大量的国外增加值,中间产品的国外增加值比例在不断上升;中美制造业参与全球价值链环节越来越多,但国内价值链构建和发展却相对薄弱;技术类别越高的中国制造业融入全球价值链的程度相对越高,但却明显低于美国;增加值贸易统计方法大幅缩小了中美贸易失衡,且技术类别越高贸易失衡缩小幅度越大。

Based on the global value chains （GVC）, Sino-U. S. bilateral trades of manufactured industries are decomposed using 1995-2011 world input-output databases. Our studies indicate the following： （1） The domestic value-added （DVA） share in Sino-U. S. bilateral trades presents a downward trend from 1995-2011. It means that the level of participation in GVC is rising for Sino-U. S. bilateral traders. （2） Chinese manufactured goods which are the downstream of GVC are lower value-added rate. （3） Large share of foreign value-added （FVA） in final goods exports indicate that China mainly engages in final assembling activities. （4） The increase of pure double counted terms （PDC） suggests the GVC of Sino-U. S. is getting longer, but national value chain （NVC） is shorter. （5） Chinese manufacturing industries, which are the higher level of technology, are the higher integration into GVC, but are lower than America. （6） The method of trade in value-added leads to a reduction in Sino-U. S. trade imbalance.