中国个人所得税改革的微观模拟分析

The Micro-Simulation Analysis of China' s Personal Income Tax Reform

采用CHNS调查数据,对个人所得税在费用扣除标准、税率结构、征收模式等方面的改革进行微观模拟分析,研究结果表明:费用扣除标准降低了劳动者税收负担;分类征收模式将低收入群体纳入个人所得税征税范围;综合征收模式有利于发挥个人所得税的收入分配调节作用;七级超额累进税率有利于降低居民税收负担。基于微观模拟结果,中国个人所得税改革的路径选择是:将个人所得税定位于调节居民收入分配差距;实行综合征收模式;费用扣除标准的设定既不宜过高,也不宜过低;继续选择七级超额累进税率作为个人所得税综合征收模式改革的目标税率。

This paper uses the CHNS survey data to make micro-simulation analysis on the expense deduction standard, tax rate structure, and collecting mode of the personal income tax reform. The research result shows that： the expense deduction standard reduces the labors＇ tax burden; classified collection mode makes low-income groups into the personal income tax payer; comprehensive collection mode is conducive to play the income distribution adjustment function of personal income tax; the seven-level progressive tax rates can reduce the tax burden of residents. Based on the results of microscopic simulation, the path selection of China＇s personal income tax reform are： personal income tax will be positioned to comprehensive collection mode, the expense deduction standard so, select the seven-level progressive tax rates as a goal rate of regulate the income distribution gap, implement setting should not be too high and not too low al- personal income tax reform continually.