山地灾害致贫风险初步分析——以湖北省恩施州为例

Analyses of Poverty Risk Induced by Mountain Disasters: A Case Study in Enshi, China

中国的贫困地区主要分布在山区,山地灾害的多发、易发在某种程度上成为制约贫困地区经济发展的因素之一。目前,山地灾害的研究集中于动力学研究,缺乏风险尤其是灾害致使贫困风险的研究。本文对山地灾害特有灾害与一般地质灾害的概念进行了区分;根据贫困的内涵与可量测性,定义了山地灾害的贫困脆弱性及山地灾害致贫风险;以贫困脆弱性分布和灾害危险性分布,构建区域山地灾害致贫风险评价模型,并基于此模型对少数民族特困地区—湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州(简称恩施州)进行应用研究。在示例分析中,首先利用确定性系数模型和频率比例法对山地灾害的危险性进行了评价;然后,从暴露性和应对能力2个方面选取了经济、社会及自然指标,以进行脆弱性评价;最后,利用通用灾害风险评价公式对研究区由于山地灾害导致的贫困风险在空间的分布进行评价,得到了研究区的山地灾害致贫风险分布与分级图。

Most of the poverty areas in China are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas, which are also prone to several mountain disasters. These disasters may lead or enhance the poverty to some extent. Current research on mountain disaster mainly focuses on the kinetics whereas pays less attention on the risks, especially on the risk of poverty. The authors distinguished the specific mountain disasters from the common disasters, and summarized the characteristics of mountain disasters, then give out the explanation of poverty vulnerability and poverty risk induced by mountain disasters. The poverty risk model is set up from the perspectives of two aspects, the hazard and the vulnerability, where the hazard is a function of susceptibility, and the vulnerability is consisted of the copping ability and exposure. With this concept, a demonstrative research is carried out for Enshi in Hubei province, which is located in the central China and is a minority mountainous area in severe poverty condition. In this demonstration, the hazard susceptibility is obtained from the landslide historical records and geological environments background analysis. As the vulnerability, the building structure intensity and completeness of infrastructure, and the net income of the farmers were factors of the copping ability,while the density of cultivated land ratio, the poverty population rate and the GDP were factors of the exposure. The final poverty risk map was produced with the upper dual-factor model and was divided into 5 levels for usability. In the end, some suggestions about poverty-reduction and disaster mitigation were introduced by the authors from the perspective of poverty risk, such as the integrate disaster and poverty reduction, and some other management policies were also recommended.