人民币汇率、企业出口边际与出口动态

RMB Exchange Rate,Export Margins and Export Dynamics

基于2000-2007年工业企业微观数据和高度细化的海关数据，文章深入考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国工业企业出口行为的影响。结果显示：（1）人民币实际有效汇率升值对中国工业企业的出口决策、出口数量、出口价格和出口额均有显著的抑制作用，并且从标准化系数来看，其对出口数量、出口价格和出口额的影响相对较大，这说明人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口的影响更多体现在集约边际上，并且在集约边际内部，企业主要通过调整出口数量来应对人民币实际有效汇率升值对其出口的冲击；（2）人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口行为的影响因企业生产率水平、规模、融资约束、所有制和贸易方式的不同而具有显著的异质性；（3）就人民币实际有效汇率与企业出口持续期的生存分析发现，人民币实际有效汇率升值显著缩短了企业出口的持续时间。

Based on the firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data from 2000 to 2007,this paper tries to investigate the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese manufacturers' export. The results show that:( 1) The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on Chinese manufacturers' export decision,export price,export quantity and export value. The impact on quantity,price and value is bigger than firms' export decision-making,meaning more effect on the intensive margin than the expand margin. Inside the intensive border,enterprises react to the impact mainly by adjusting the export quantity.( 2) The effects are significantly different among firms with different characteristics,including productivity,size,financing constraints,ownership and way of trade.( 3) The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate shortens the duration of export.