摘要
目的:拟合我国卫生总费用占GDP比重的数学模型,探讨模型的适用性,为发展卫生事业及深化医疗卫生改革提供依据。方法:采用EViews 6.0建立差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)。结果:建立的模型ARMA(5,1)适用于对我国卫生总费用占GDP比重进行预测分析。经预测,"十二五"时期卫生总费用占GDP比重逐年增长,达到WHO提出的5%的基本要求。结论:卫生总费用占GDP比重在合理范围内逐年增长,应调整卫生总费用的构成比重,通过社会医疗保险和社会资本办医等途径增加社会卫生支出,缓解"看病贵"问题。
Objective： To match the mathematical model of Chinese Total Health Expenditure of GDP,discuss the applicability of the model,and provide the basis and advice for developing health services and deepening the health care reform. Methods： The ARIMA model was built by EViews 6. 0. Results： The ARMA（ 5,1） model is suitable for the forecasting analysis of the total health expenditure of GDP. The predicted results is that the total health expenditure of GDP increases in the twelfth five- year period. And it meets the basic requirements（ 5%） of WHO.Conclusion： The total health expenditure of GDP increases in a reasonable range. Structure of the total health expenditure of GDP should be adjusted. To relieve expensive medical cost,the social health expenditure should increase by ways like social medical insurance and nongovernmental invested institutions.
出处
《医学与社会》
2016年第3期18-20,共3页
Medicine and Society
关键词
卫生总费用
预测
Total Health Expenditure
Forecast
