基于Bass模型的中国新能源汽车扩散模式研究

Bass扩散模型及其扩展理论是常用的市场分析工具,可以用其对新产品、新技术扩散方式进行分析。研究基于Bass模型,根据2008年—2014年中国新能源汽车销量数据,运用非线性最小二乘法对模型进行预估。研究结果显示,当前中国新能源汽车的扩散模式受外部模仿性因素影响更大,即消费者在选购新能源汽车时,受其他已购消费者口碑影响大于汽车自身创新因素。因此,在营销过程中,新能源汽车企业应加强口碑引导,注重口碑营销,以实现新能源汽车的高效率扩散。

Bass diffusion model and its extension theory are the common market analysis tools, which could be used to analyze the diffusion of new products and new technologies. Based on Bass model, this study selected the sales data of new energy vehicles from 2008 to 2014 in Chinese mainland market, and applied the nonlinear least squares method to estimate the model. Results showed that the diffusion model of new energy vehicles was more affected by external imitative factors. When consumers bought new energy vehicles, they were influenced by word of mouth more than the cares own innovation factors. So the new energy vehicle enterprises should strengthen the word of mouth so as to realize efficient diffusion of new energy vehicles.