洮儿河中上游地区水分适宜性变化及其影响因子

Changes of Water Suitability and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Taoer River Area

计算了洮儿河中上游地区1961—2012年的干燥度指数I_a,利用干燥度指数来评价洮儿河中上游地区的水分适宜性,采用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析了平均气温、风速、日照时数、相对湿度、降水量和I_a的变化趋势,通过计算I_a对各气象要素的敏感系数,分析了I_a对各气象要素的敏感性,并结合各气象要素多年变化特征,定量分析了I_a变化的原因。结果表明:除平均气温、降水量有递增趋势外,其他的气象因子及I_a都呈现减小趋势;I_a对降水量的变化最敏感,其次是相对湿度、风速、平均气温、日照时数;风速和平均气温是I_a变化的主导因子,其他气象因子对I_a变化的贡献从大到小依次是:降水量、相对湿度、日照时数;在各气象因子中,平均气温和相对湿度对I_a变化呈现出正贡献,其他气象因子均呈现出负贡献。

Under the background of global warming,it is important to analyze the regional water suitability.Aridity index of the upper and middle reaches in Taoer River where is located in northeast China＇s Inner Mongolia and Jilinwas calculatedduring the period 1961—2012.The trends of mean temperature,wind speed,sunshine hours,relative humidity,precipitation and were analyzed using the climatic trend rate and Mann-Kendall trend analysis.The sensitivity of to meteorological factors was analyzed by calculating the sensitivity coefficients of to them and the change ofwas studied by analyzing the relative changes of them.The results showed that mean temperature and precipitation had increasing trends,while wind speed,sunshine hours,and relative humidity and had decreasing trends.The most sensitive variable wasprecipitation,followed by relative humidity,wind speed,mean temperature,and sunshine hours.Moreover,the contributions to the change of in descending order were：wind speed,mean temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,sunshine hours.The contributions of mean temperature and relative humidity were positive,but otherswere negative.