中国能源效率影响能源消费的内在机理及传导路径研究

Research on Inner Mechanism and Conducting Path of Energy Efficiency Improvement Affecting Energy Consumption in China

讨论已有研究在能源效率与能源消费关系上的分歧及成因,并指出传统能源回弹路径与中国情况的不合之处。通过构建新的逻辑分析框架,对中国能源效率提高影响能源消费的内在机理进行分析,并借助联立方程模型和经验数据对其影响方向和传导路径做出实证研究。得出结论,(1)中国能源效率提高影响能源消费的路径有两条,一是直接抑制,二是通过促进经济增长而间接拉动;(2)与发达国家不同,中国能源效率的提升并未降低能源价格和促进技术进步从而使能源消费回弹;(3)推动能源消费增长的主要因素是经济增长而非能效提高。

This paper discusses the divergence about the effect of rising efficiency on the total energy consumption, and points out the differences between the traditional path of energy rebound effect and China~ fact. Based on the available liter- ature and serious comparison, the authors establish a new analytic framework to analyze the influence and conduct a path of energy efficiency on energy consumption, and then empirically test it by using the Simultaneous Equation Model and Chi- nese statistics during 1980--2011. According to the result, the conclusion can be drawn as follows： （1） Chinat energy ef- ficiency development reduced energy consumption directly, increased it by promoting economic growth indirectly, and the inhibitory effect was more than the promotional one; （2） Unlike the western countries, energy efficiency improvement in China did not cause the energy wastage bounce by promoting economic growth or decreasing the energy price; （3） The key factor increasing the usage of energy was economic development.