对外开放与我国产业结构转型的新路径

The Role of Trade in China's Structural Transformation

在全球经济一体化的今天，发展中国家的产业结构转型不应过度追求与发达国家历史经验相一致的转型路径，对外开放带来的国际分工造成了当前发展中国家转型路径的多样性。本文在一个两国、三部门模型框架下，使用中、关两国数据，分析对外开放对我国产业结构转型路径的影响。文章发现，1992～2014年我国农业占比的下降主要来自国内因素驱动，而对外开放对解释这一时期内我国制造业占比的迅速增长和持续偏高起到了重要作用，是造成我国当前产业结构转型路径区别于发达国家历史经验的主要原因之一。从趋势上看，对外开放效应的重要程度逐渐减弱，本国效应的重要程度逐渐增强，长期内我国产业结构调整仍需立足内需。

On the background of global economic integration, developing countries should not excessively pursue the samestylized facts of structural transformation with the developed countries' historical experiences. International divisionbrought about by trade has resulted in the diversity of the transformation paths of the developing countries today. Basedon a two-country, three-sector model, this paper analyzes the role of foreign trade in China's structural transformationwith the data from China and the US. We find that over the period of 1992~2014, the decline of agriculture sector ismainly driven by domestic factors, while the rapid and persistent growth of manufacturing sector, which is distinguishedfrom the stylized facts of developed countries' historical experiences, is greatly affected by foreign trade. However,since the significance of foreign trade is becoming weakened, and the influence of domestic factors is gradually increas-ing, domestic demand plays a crucial role in China's structural transformation in the long term.