基于输电线路全工况信息的风险评估方法

All Conditions Information Based Risk Assessment Method for Transmission Line

针对传统风险评估方法没有充分反映输电线路的特殊运行环境及其自身特点,提出了基于输电线路全工况信息的风险评估方法。该方法首先根据统计方法由输电线路的历史故障、缺陷信息建立风险评估模型,再推导输电线路各部件状态量的量化过程,进而得到具有故障概率含义的输电线路风险评估结果。最后研究了输电线路设备的运行年限,输电线路所处的时间、地理位置信息以及电网的自身运行状态等多方面工况信息对输电线路风险值的影响。通过实例表明,所提方法能够较好地预测输电线路的风险情况,为输电线路的检修计划以及设备的更换提供良好的借鉴参考。

The traditional risk assessment methods do not adequately consider specific operating environment and characteristics of a transmission line. Therefore, a new risk assessment method considering the information of all conditions is proposed in this paper. First, a risk assessment model is established via statistical methods based on the information of historical failures and defects of a transmission line. Then,the quantization processes of the state parameters of components in the transmission line are derived to obtain the results of risk assessment of transmission line. These results are of failure probability meaning.Finally, the influences of the operating years of equipment in the transmission line, the service time and location information of the transmission line, and the working status of grid on risk value of the transmission line are analyzed. Example shows that the proposed method can predict risks of transmission line and provide a reference for maintenance scheduling and replacement of equipment.