基于自记忆方程的干旱区地下水水位动态模拟

Prediction of Groundwater Depth with Periodical Fluctuation Based on Self-memory Equation in Arid Zone

地下水水位预测对于合理开发利用地下水与保护生态环境具有重要意义。以新疆希尼尔水库周边区域为例,根据研究区多年地下水埋深观测数据,建立了基于自记忆方程的地下水埋深预测模型。结果表明:该模型模拟与预测精度较高,为研究区的地下水合理开发利用提供了重要参考;研究结果可用于其他类似时间序列变量的模拟预测。

The accurate prediction of groundwater depth is of great significance for the rational development and utilization of groundwater and the protection of ecological environment.In this paper,taking Xi＇ni＇er Reservoir periphery area as an example,according to the buried depth of groundwater observation data of many years,agroundwater depth prediction model based on self-memory equation is established.The results show that：the simulation and the prediction precision of the model are high,and the model can provide an important reference for the reasonable development and utilization of groundwater in the study area;the results can also be used in other similar time series variable simulation.