基于附加值贸易统计的中国对外贸易失衡研究

The Study of China's Foreign Trade Imbalance: A Value-Added Approach

基于最终消费品价值分解的视角,文章通过拓展附加值贸易统计模型,利用1995-2011年世界投入产数据库测度了中国附加值贸易失衡的规模大小、国别来源和行业结构,并与总值统计结果1比较分析发现：（1）中国单边贸易净额并没有发生变化,2011年仅次于德国居世界第二位;（2）双边贸易失衡结构有所改善,中国与世界主要经济体的双边顺差或者逆差规模均大幅度下降,而最大顺差额仍来自美国;（3）外贸失衡主要来自基础产业和制造业部门,服务业部门失衡额较小但增长速度很快;从要素禀赋结构来看喜忧参半,劳动密集型行业顺差额大规模下降,而资本密集型行业大幅度上升,但知识密集型行业净额又有所减少。因而,促进外汇储备合理配置、深入调整外贸国别结构、持续推进行业转型升级等将有助于中国对外贸易环境和质量的改善。

Based on value-added trade statistics model and world input-output database, this paper estimates China＇s trade imbalance in value-added, national and industry structures in perspective of final demand in 1995-2011. By comparing with the gross value of trade statistics, it finds that： （1） the value-added approach does not alter China＇s unilateral trade balance, and China has the second largest trade balance in the world, next to Germany in 2011; （2） bilateral trade imbalance is improving, and the scales of surplus and deficit both significantly decline, while the largest trade surplus is still from the US;（3）the surplus is mainly from basic industry and manufacturing, but as to service industry, it has a smaller absolute amount but grows faster; in the factor endowment view, there are sharp declines in the surplus of labor intensive industry, but a fast rise in capital-intensive industry, meanwhile, net amount in knowledge intensive industry is declining. Therefore, the proper allocation of foreign exchange, adjusting foreign trade structure and industrial upgrading are essential to improve China＇s foreign trade environment and quality.