基于碳收支核算的郑州市碳排放压力分析及预测

Carbon Emission Pressure and Its Prediction of Zhengzhou City Based on Carbon Budget Estimation

区域碳收支核算是全球气候变化研究的关键内容。城市碳收支核算不仅有助于建立区域碳平衡分析的理论框架,而且对于区域温室气体清单编制及低碳发展模式的选择也具有十分重要的意义。以郑州市为例,在对碳收支及碳排放压力进行核算分析的基础上,采用线性回归方法和最小二乘法对郑州市2030年的碳排放进行了预测研究,并提出了郑州市低碳城市发展的政策建议。主要结论如下:(1)郑州市碳收支呈明显不匹配现象,碳排放总量及其增速明显超过了碳吸收。其中,能源活动和农作物分别是主要的碳源和碳汇途径,两者各占碳排放/吸收比重的80%以上;(2)郑州市碳排放强度呈下降趋势。这表明,随着节能减排和区域发展模式的转型,区域碳排放效率明显提升;但总体而言,郑州市经济增长与碳排放的关系处于弱脱钩状态,经济发展仍然依赖于能源消耗及碳排放增长;(3)预测发现,2030年碳排放量虽比2012年大幅度增长,但碳排放效率逐渐提升,预期碳排放增长率不断下降。

Urhan carbon budget estimation is one of the key topics of the study on global climate change. Carrying out the carbon budget estimation of cities not only helps build the theoretical framework of regional carbon balance analysis, but also has great significance for the compilation of regional greenhouse gas invento- ry and the choice of low-carbon development pattern. Zhengzhou City was chosen as an example and the carbon emissions in the year 2030 was predicted by adopting the liner regression method and the least squre method. The low-carbon urban development policy suggestions were put forward on the basis of urban carbon budget study. The main conclusion are as follows. （1） The carbon emission and the carbon sink were not matching obviously. The carbon emission and its growth rate were significantly more than the carbon sink. Among them, the energy activities and the crops were the main source of carbon emission and carbon sink, respectively, and both of which accounted for more than 80 %of the emission/sink. （2） The carbon intensity of Zhengzhou presented the decline trend, suggesting that carbon intensity improved significantly along with the implementation of policies of the energy conservation and emission reduction and the transformation of the regional pattern of development. However, the economic growth and the carbon emission were in the weak decoupling state and the development of economic still relied on the consumption of energy and the emission of carbon. （3） According to the prediction we find that there will be a substantial increase of the carbon emission in 2030 compared with the emissions of 2012, but the carbon efficiency will enhance gradually and the expected emission growth rate will decline.