基于分形的宁安市土地利用变化及驱动力研究

Study on Land Use Change and Its Driving Forces in Ning′an City Based on Fractal Theory

以黑龙江省宁安市为研究区,以1991—2010年3期遥感影像为数据源,基于分形理论,在RS、GIS技术支持下,运用空间统计分析和综合因素分析法分析研究区土地利用变化特征及其驱动力,以期揭示土地利用变化规律及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)1991—2010年研究区的土地利用发生了普遍的变化,耕地和建设用地的面积逐年增加,林地和草地的面积逐年减少,水域和其他用地的面积保持相对稳定。耕地面积的增长主要来源于林地;建设用地主要增量来源于耕地,林地转移方向主要为耕地,其增量主要来源于草地。草地面积逐年减少,其主要转移方向是耕地和林地,其增量主要来源于林地。(2)1991—2010年宁安市整体的分维数值处于上升趋势,稳定性是下降态势,水域的空间结构最复杂,耕地和建设用地的空间结构较为简单。水域结构复杂,稳定性强;耕地和林地结构先复杂后趋向稳定;草地和建设用地结构越来越复杂,趋于不稳定;其他用地结构简单,趋向稳定。(3)引起研究区土地利用变化的主要自然因素是灾害与气候特征,社会经济发展、人口因素、居民生活水平和技术进步是研究区土地利用变化的主要人为驱动力,人为因素的驱动力度在逐年加强。

We took Ning＇an City in Heilongjiang Province as the study area. Based on the three periods of remote sensing images from 1991 to 2010, we investigated the quantitative and structural changes, land use changes characteristics using the fractal theory of the study area by RS, GIS, spatial statistical analysis and synthesis factor analysis method in order to reveal the pattern of land use change and its influencing factors. The results showed that： （1） drung the period from 1991 to 2010 land use in the study area generally changed, farmland and construction land area increased year by year, decrease of the area of woodland and grassland, water was found, and the other land area remained relatively stable, increase of arable land mainly was shifted from woodland; incremental construction land was mainly shifted from farmland, forestland transfer direction was mainly towards farmland, and was mainly shifted from its incremental grassland, grassland decreased year by year, its main transfer direction was towards farmland and woodland, its incre ment was mainly shifted from woodland; （2） during the period from 1991 to 2010, Ning＇an overall value of the fractal dimension rose, the stability presented the downward trend, the spatial structure of waters was the most complex, spatial structures of arable land and the construction land were relatively simple, structure of waters was most stable; farmland and woodland structures tended to be stable after the first complex ity; structures of grassland and construction land were more complex, and tended to be unstable; simple structure of other sites tended to be stable; （3） the main natural factors of land use change were the hydro logical and climate characteristics, government decisions affecting land use change direction, the socio-eco nomic development, demographic factors and technological progress were the main driving forces on human land use change, human factors driving strength became great year by year.